For months, as inflation soared and Federal Reserve Acting aggressively to calm him, a question has hovered over the monthly employment reports: Has the job market succumbed to gravity yet?
The answer, so far, has been, “No, mostly not.” But in the July report, which arrived on Friday, the answer is likely “yes, but it didn’t fall to the ground.”
Since supply chain problems and the war in Ukraine have sent prices skyrocketing, the most notable feature of the economy has been strong job growth, with 6.3 million jobs added over the past 12 months. As of June, the US was within 520,000 jobs from its pre-pandemic peak, weighed down by a decline in government hiring.
But this recovery has come under increasing pressure as inflation devours consumers’ purchasing power and darkens their mood, and with rising interest rates starting to weigh on demand for large purchases such as homes and cars. Gross Domestic Productionadjusted for inflation, declined for the second consecutive quarter, weighed down by slower inventory growth and slumping residential investment.
More recently, there have been indications that economic headwinds are affecting the labor market as well. Jobs chances It fell from record levels in the spring, driven by lower demand for retail, leisure and hospitality workers. Initial claims As for unemployment insurance, it rose to 260,000 per week last month from a low of 166,000 per week in March. Hiring has been on LinkedIn slowdown since Aprilparticularly in construction and hotel accommodation.
On average, forecasters expect Friday’s report to show that the nation added 250,000 jobs in July. Last month’s report showed gains 372000 in JuneOn par with the previous three months.
Morning Consult is a survey and analytics company, which Surveys About 20,000 people a week, they notice an increase in the number of adults in the United States reporting lost income due to layoffs or reduced working hours. Consistent with research showing that people of color are the first to be affected when hiring slows, these increases were more severe among black and Latino workers.
However, the increase in income losses was not concentrated in sectors sensitive to spikes in coronavirus transmission, as has been the pattern since 2020.
“It’s not a Covid story – I think it’s a broader overall slowdown,” said Morning Consult’s chief economist, John Leer. “People were overworking, and now, we’re at a point where it makes sense to let them go because of the uncertainty in the business cycle.”
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