April 20, 2024

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Monday fantasy basketball tips and predictions

Monday fantasy basketball tips and predictions

ESPN's Basketball Betting Tips and Fantasy Basketball Cheat Sheet is your pre-game destination for basketball betting predictions and our best information and data, featuring ESPN's Basketball Power Index (BPI) to help you make smart betting and betting decisions. Fantasy tip is based on ESPN's 10-team leagues.

New this season is that ESPN Analytics will also create daily fantasy projections for the NBA. By combining historical player and team data and game specific factors, ESPN is able to accurately predict player box score statistics. Taking into account injuries, trends in playing time, and other factors that affect future performance, statistical models can be used to help NBA players gain an advantage in their league.


What you need to know for Monday's matches

After Sunday's 11-game NBA slate, Monday offers a quieter quartet of contests. However, the good news for fantasy managers is that many of today's playing rotations are affected by a series of suspensions and injuries, and thus feature widely available players worthy of our attention.

  • For example, the Miami Heat will not have star Jimmy Butler in the lineup due to suspension, as the team visits the Sacramento Kings. Both Terry Rozier and Tyler Herro are listed as questionable with their injuries. All of this points to increased value for the likes of Duncan Robinson (listed at 11.5% by ESPN), Jaime Jaquez Jr. (18.7%), and Caleb Martin (3.9%), who I would prioritize in the order listed. For the Kings, Sixth Man of the Year Malik Monk, a favorite (62.1%), continues to shine as a scoring microwave.

  • The best offensive atmosphere today may be where the All-Star Game just concluded, with the Indiana Pacers hosting the Toronto Raptors in a game that yielded the highest total on the slate at 244.5 points. With Indiana potentially losing two-way wing Aaron Nesmith to injury, second-year bucket Benedict Mathurin (16.2%) could continue to perform.

  • The New York Knicks face off in a friendly matchup with frequent trade partners, the Detroit Pistons. The Knicks continue to rely heavily on Precious Achiuwa (27.9%), who remains one of the best supporting players in our streaming division. Meanwhile, Detroit has a rising rookie in Osar Thompson (45.4%).

  • However, the most effective broadcast roster is in Tennessee where the Memphis Grizzlies feature two young forwards in Vince Williams Jr. (36.7%) and JJ Jackson (11.1%). They host the Brooklyn Nets, a team that has somehow lost even more of its luster as a fantasy resource now that Kevin Ollie is doling out minutes during a deep rotation.

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Broadcast team for Monday

This segment filters out three main broadcast options ahead of that day's event. A streamer, by our criteria, is a player available in at least half of the men's basketball leagues on ESPN.

Vince Williams Jr., SG/SF, Grizzlies (Listed in 36.7% of ESPN leagues): Memphis is still weeks away from getting some veteran starters back in the rotation, which means Williams gets more runway to develop and put up impressive numbers as a creator and scorer.

Precious Achiuwa, PF/C, Knicks (27.9%): Making room for Achiuwa and Josh Hart (43.6%) could be rewarding heading into tonight's matchup with Detroit. Achiuwa rarely leaves the floor as a busy defender and rim protector, while Hart's “Glue Guy” game often flirts with triple-double scores.

Ausar Thompson, SF/PF, Pistons (45.4%): Motown is sometimes hesitant to empower its young talent, but Thompson's toughness and work on the glass should play a big role in this matchup with the Knicks' strong, disciplined roster. The good news with Thompson is that he can produce elite fantasy results even when his shot isn't showing, as his defensive stats have already proven to be elite.

Duncan Robinson, SG/SF, Heat (11.5%): A shooting specialist who has added more life to his game off the bounce this season than ever before, Robinson's scoring range has been impressive in recent games. Martin and Jaquiz have better looks both ways, but Robinson's shooting and scoring floor looks the most reliable.


Prospects and injury reports

Fantasy projections powered by ESPN Analytics.* Projections assume all players on GTD's roster will play. Casualty compilation by Rotowire.com. Players available in at least 50% of ESPN leagues are listed in italics.


Toronto Raptors over Indiana Pacers
7 p.m.: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis


BMI projection: The Pacers are in the highest-scoring game on the list.

Injury report:
Raptors: None reported
Pacers: Aaron Nesmith (GTD – Ankle)

Raptors predictions:

  • Scotty Barnes, SF/PF: 40.5 fps (20.5 PTS, 7.4 REB, 6.6 AST, 1.4 BLK)

  • Immanuel Quickley, PG/SG: 32.0 fps (17.4 PTS, 4.0 REB, 4.0 AST, 2.4 3PM)

  • RJ Barrett, SG/SF: 29.6 fps (17.2 PTS, 4.6 REB, 3.2 AST)

  • Jakob Poeltl, C: 26.5 fps (11.4 PTS, 9.1 REB, 2.3 AST, 1.7 BLK)

  • Gary Trent Jr., PG/SG: 20.9 fps (11.9 pts, 2.7 reb, 1.1 ast, 2.3 3pm)

  • Kelly Olynyk, PF/C: 16.9 fps (6.3 PTS, 4.0 REB, 2.6 AST)

  • Bruce Brown, SG/SF: 16.6 fps (7.3 PTS, 3.3 REB, 1.8 AST)

Pacers predictions:

  • Tyrese Haliburton, PG/SG: 43.0 fps (19.1 PTS, 3.6 REB, 8.5 AST, 2.8 3PM)

  • Pascal Siakam, PF/C: 40.7 fps (22.4 PTS, 6.5 REB, 4.4 AST)

  • Myles Turner, C: 26.8 fps (15.0 pts, 6.5 reb, 1.2 ast, 1.5 plk)

  • Andrew Nembhard, PG/SG: 25.3 fps (11.4 PTS, 2.9 REB, 4.3 AST)

  • Benedict Mathurin, Saint-Germain/San Francisco: 22.5 fps (13.9 PTS, 3.9 REB, 1.8 AST)

  • Jalen Smith, PF/C: 19.0 fps (9.1 PTS, 5.5 REB, 0.9 AST)

  • TJ McConnell, PG: 16.9 fps (7.2 PTS, 2.4 REB, 3.2 AST)


Detroit Pistons over New York Knicks
7:30 PM Madison Square Garden, New York


BMI projection: The Knicks are in the second highest game on the list.

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Injury report:
Pistons: Isaiah Stewart (out – suspension); Markus Sasser (outside – knee)
Knicks: Duane Washington Jr. (out – thumb); Julius Randle (outside – shoulder); OG Anunoby, (outside – elbow); Mitchell Robinson (out – ankle)

Pistons forecast:

  • Cade Cunningham, PG/SG: 42.1 fps (22.9 PTS, 3.9 REB, 7.5 AST, 1.8 3PM)

  • Jalen Duren, C: 30.1 fps (13.1 PTS, 9.7 REB, 2.5 AST)

  • Jaden Ivey, PG/SG: 27.9 fps (16.2 PTS, 3.5 REB, 3.6 AST)

  • Osar Thompson, SG/San Francisco: 24.8 fps (11.8 PTS, 6.2 REB, 1.9 AST)

  • Simone Fontecchio, San Francisco: 21.3 fps (10.0 pts, 4.0 reb, 1.6 ast, 1.8 3pm)

  • Evan Fournier, Saint-Germain/San Francisco: 13.5 fps (7.0 PTS, 1.6 REB, 1.0 AST)

  • James Wiseman, C: 13.2 fps (6.1 pts, 3.8 reb, 0.8 ast)

Knicks predictions:

  • Jalen Brunson, PG/SG: 44.2 fps (26.1 PTS, 3.3 REB, 6.4 AST, 2.7 3PM)

  • Donte DiVincenzo, SG: 33.4 fps (18.2 pts, 3.8 reb, 3.0 ast, 3.5 3pm)

  • Precious Achiwa, PF/C: 33.0 fps (17.5 pips, 9.2 reb, 1.5 ast)

  • Josh Hart, SG/SF: 32.2 fps (13.2 PTS, 7.6 REB, 3.7 AST)

  • Bojan Bogdanovic, SF/PF: 23.2 FPS (14.3 PTS, 2.3 REB, 1.7 AST, 2.3 3PM)

  • Isaiah Hartenstein, PF/C: 19.5 fps (8.1 PTS, 6.2 REB, 1.5 AST)

  • Alec Burkes, Saint-Germain: 15.7 fps (9.5 pts, 1.6 reb, 1.2 ast)


Brooklyn Nets face Memphis Grizzlies
8 p.m. FedExForum, Memphis


BMI projection: The net is in the fourth highest-scoring match on the list.

Injury report:
Nets: Ben Simmons (GTD – leg); Darick Whitehead (out – lower leg)
Grizzlies: John Konchar (outside – thumb); Brandon Clarke (Out – Achilles); Scottie Pippen Jr. (outside – back); Desmond Bane (out – ankle); Marcus Smart, (outside – finger); Ja Morant (outside – shoulder)

Network forecasts:

  • Mikal Bridges, SG/SF: 35.7 fps (21.3 PTS, 4.2 REB, 3.7 AST, 2.5 3PM)

  • Cam Thomas, SG: 29.7 fps (19.4 PTS, 3.3 REB, 3.0 AST, 1.9 3PM)

  • Nick Claxton, PF/C: 26.4 fps (11.3 PTS, 9.7 REB, 1.8 AST, 2.1 BLK)

  • Ben Simmons, PG/PF: 22.5 fps (7.2 PTS, 6.7 REB, 4.6 AST)

  • Dennis Schröder, PG: 21.4 fps (9.5 PTS, 2.3 REB, 4.2 AST)

  • Cameron Johnson, SF/PF: 19.7 fps (9.2 PTS, 3.6 REB, 2.1 AST, 1.8 3PM)

  • Dennis Smith Jr., PG: 17.6 fps (5.6 PTS, 3.0 REB, 3.2 AST)

Grizzlies predictions:

  • Jaren Jackson Jr., PF/C: 35.7 fps (25.5 pts, 5.0 reb, 2.8 ast, 2.1 3pm, 1.6 blk)

  • Vince Williams Jr., SG/San Francisco: 34.8 fps (15.1 PTS, 7.0 REB, 4.7 AST, 1.9 3PM)

  • Santi Aldama, PF/C: 26.2 fps (12.7 PTS, 5.9 REB, 2.7 AST, 1.8 3M)

  • Luke Kennard, SG: 22.0 fps (10.8 pts, 3.3 reb, 2.7 ast, 2.6 3pm)

  • JJ Jackson, PF: 21.1 fps (13.1 PTS, 4.2 REB, 0.9 AST, 1.8 3PM)

  • Ziaire Williams, SG: 20.6 fps (11.6 PTS, 4.0 REB, 1.6 AST)

  • Derrick Rose, PG: 15.4 fps (7.2 PTS, 1.8 REB, 2.8 AST)


Miami Heat – Sacramento Kings
10 p.m. Golden 1 Center, Sacramento


BMI projection: The Kings are in the third highest matchup on the list.

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Injury report:
Heat: Orlando Robinson, (GTD – Return); Terry Rozier (GTD – Knee); Tyler Herro (GTD – Knee); Jimmy Butler (out – off); Nikola Jovic (out – off); Josh Richardson (outside – shoulder); Thomas Bryant (out – off); Drew Smith (outside – knee)
Kings: Alex Len, (GTD – Illness); Sasha Vezenkov (Out – Ankle)

Temperature forecast:

  • Bam Adebayo, C: 41.3 fps (20.6 PTS, 11.3 REB, 4.7 AST)

  • Tyler Herro, PG/SG: 40.6 fps (23.8 pts, 5.6 reb, 5.0 ast, 3.4 3m)

  • Jaime Jaquez Jr., San Francisco: 30.0 fps (16.5 PTS, 4.6 REB, 2.7 AST)

  • Caleb Martin, SG/SF: 26.7 fps (13.5 PTS, 5.3 REB, 2.1 AST)

  • Duncan Robinson, SG/SF: 25.3 fps (12.5 PTS, 2.8 REB, 2.8 AST, 2.6 3PM)

  • Kevin Love, PF/C: 19.2 fps (6.8 PTS, 6.0 REB, 1.9 AST)

  • Haywood Highsmith, San Francisco: 16.5 fps (6.9 pts, 3.4 reb, 1.2 ast)

Kings predictions:

  • De'Aaron Fox, PG: 51.5 fps (27.9 PTS, 4.2 REB, 6.1 AST, 3.0 3PM)

  • Domantas Sabonis, PF/C: 44.3 FPS (19.7 PTS, 11.9 REB, 7.3 AST)

  • Keegan Murray, SF/PF: 25.6 fps (13.4 PTS, 4.8 REB, 1.5 AST, 2.3 3PM)

  • Malik Monk, SG/SF: 25.3 fps (13.8 PTS, 2.9 REB, 3.8 AST, 2.2 3PM)

  • Kevin Huerter, SG/SF: 23.4 fps (11.6 PTS, 3.8 REB, 2.2 AST, 2.1 3PM)

  • Harrison Barnes, SF/PF: 18.1 fps (9.9 pts, 2.6 reb, 0.9 ast)

  • Trey Lyles, PF: 15.9 fps (7.8 PTS, 4.0 REB, 1.0 AST)