May 30, 2024

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The Fall Guy is on track to make a $35 million debut at the box office

The Fall Guy is on track to make a $35 million debut at the box office

Ryan Gosling and Emily Blunt, two staples of the “Barbenheimer” phenomenon, will leave Barbieland and Los Alamos behind as they team up on “The Fall Guy.” But will audiences turn out in droves to see the Barbie and Oppenheimer stars when their new comedy premieres this weekend?

Well, “The Fall Guy” won't achieve the box office heights of those films, but it will have no problem topping the charts as the summer movie season begins. The film is expected to earn as much as $30 million, with some rival studio executives pegging the opening at $35 million to $40 million. The catch is that the film wasn't cheap to produce, as it had a healthy budget of $130 million, so The Fall Guy will need strong word of mouth if it's going to take the long road to profitability. You will also need to do well abroad. The Fall Guy has already opened in 38 international territories, including Australia (where it was filmed to take advantage of tax credits), Israel and Central America, where it has grossed $8.4 million. It will open in over 40 additional markets this weekend including the UK, Germany, France and Mexico.

“The Fall Guy” finds Gosling playing a former stuntman who is lured back into the business to work on a major studio movie directed by his ex-wife (Blunt). Making matters more complicated is the disappearance of the star of the production (Aaron Taylor-Johnson). “The Fall Guy” is directed by David Leitch, who previously directed “Bullet Train” and “Atomic Blonde,” and who is a stuntman himself. The cast also includes Hannah Waddingham, Winston Duke, and Stephanie Hsu. “The Fall Guy” will open in more than 3,800 locations in North America.

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In terms of competition, “The Fall Guy” will face off against the second weekend of Amazon MGM Studios’ “Challengers,” which took first place last weekend with a $15 million debut, as well as the opening of “Tarot,” a film Low budget. A horror film produced by Sony and Screen Gems that is expected to earn between $5 million and $6 million. That's not a bad thing considering that “Tarot” cost just $8 million to produce and that the studio is running an all-digital marketing campaign (none of those expensive TV spots), which should keep costs low. “Tarot” will be shown in approximately 3,000 locations.

It's been 25 years since Jar Jar Binks first hit screens. In honor of that anniversary and in celebration of May 4th (also known as “Star Wars Day”), Disney and Lucasfilm will re-release “Star Wars: The Phantom Menace” in more than 2,600 domestic theaters. Last year, the studio did something similar with Return of the Jedi, which was celebrating its 40th anniversaryy Anniversary, and saw a total of $5.1 million. And a result similar to “Phantom Menace” doesn't seem too far-fetched.

With the domestic box office down more than 20%, exhibitors are desperate for some blockbusters to fill their screens. But actors and writers strikes, coupled with delays caused by the coronavirus, have left studios with fewer films to release. Theaters are hoping that films like “The Fall Guy” will exceed expectations and that other upcoming releases like “Despicable Me 4” and “Deadpool & Wolverine” will bring back fans of their respective franchises. If they don't, movie theaters will be in for the summer without much fanfare.

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